The Academy Awards are tonight, and I'm prepared. I've seen every Best Picture nominee, every acting nominee, and every directing and writing nominee. I've also seen every nominee for cinematography, editing, sound and sound effects, production design, visual effects, costumes, and original score.
Yes, I have too much free time.
So here are some of my thoughts before the ceremonies get started.
BEST PICTURE: If I had a vote, I would vote for Dunkirk. It's visually stunning, terse, and emotionally involving. I'm not the world's biggest fan of Christopher Nolan, but the timing structure he created for the movie, and the fact that he's confident enough in his visuals and his actors so that he doesn't flood the movie with dialogue makes this picture superb. I also think that there were some big acting snubs from this movie as Kenneth Branaugh and Tom Hardy are superb.
My second pick would be Get Out. It's a dark comedy. It's horror. It's a tense thriller, and it's hard-hitting satire. It was also made on a small budget from a studio that specializes in small budget horror films.
I really enjoyed The Post and Lady Bird. Neither will win. I liked Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri a lot when I saw it in the theater. But then the plot holes really began to bother me -- Woody Harrelson's must younger Australian wife, Sam Rockwell's character being allowed to roam free, whatever Peter Dinklage was supposed to be doing in the movie.
I was bored out of my mind by Call Me By Your Name, though it's an incredibly beautiful movie to look at. Phantom Thread wasn't boring, but I just found myself unable to get into the movie. Darkest Hour is a TV movie about a guy wearing a fat suit, and don't get me started on that subway scene.
A friend of mine calls The Shape of Water the movie where a woman fucks a fish. I'm not that harsh. I thought parts of the movie were beautiful and moving. I liked little bits which worked in small musical numbers. But Sally Hawkins does fuck a fish, and the whole plot is just way too out there.
There are 10 available slots for Best Picture, but there were only nine nominations. I would have put The Florida Project and I, Tonya in as nominees in place of Darkest Hour and Call Me By Your Name. But I wasn't asked.
It's my opinion that either The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri gets the big award.
BEST DIRECTOR: My vote would go to Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk. But he's not going to be the winner. I think Guillermo del Toro will get this award for his woman fucking a fish movie. The work of first time directors Jordan Peele (Get Out) and Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) was very good, as was Paul Thomas Anderson with Phantom Thread. But del Torro has been picking up all of the awards.
BEST ACTOR: Gary Oldman is going to win this award for Darkest Hour. He shouldn't. He's just a guy wearing a fat suit doing a bad impersonation of Winston Churchill. Oldman, however, should have won the award several years ago when he was George Smiley in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.
I would place my vote for Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq. But I think I was the only person in the U.S. who liked that movie. Timothee Chalumet was nominated for Call Me By Your Name -- his key scene involved fucking a peach. Daniel Kaluuya was fine in Get Out. Daniel Day-Lewis did an excellent job as an insufferable prick in Phantom Thread, but the role was not flashy.
For some reason, Tom Hanks was not nominated, but he was excellent in The Post.
BEST ACCTRESS: Frances McDormand has been winning lots of awards for her role as the angry mother in Three Billboards. She's the likely winner. Sally Hawkins could get the award for being forced to fuck a fish. Meryl Streep is Meryl Streep, though I thought her work in The Post was her best performance in many years. Saoirse Ronan is very good in Lady Bird.
My vote would go to Margot Robbie for her performance as Tanya Harding in I, Tonya.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: In a fair and decent world, Willem Dafoe gets this Oscar for his work in The Florida Project. He projects goodness and exasperation. He's always in control and he knows that the kids he often has to work with are the stars of the movie.
This isn't a fair and decent world. Richard Jenkins in the fish fucking movie and Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards are also nominated. They won't win. Christopher Plummer was brought in by Ridley Scott to replace Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World after the sexual abuse revelations came out, and about six weeks before the film was released. Spacey's part was completely reshot by Plummer in supposedly eight days. But I think the award will go to Sam Rockwell for his work as a racist cop in Three Billboards.
Also, can someone explain to me the snub of Ray Romano for his work in The Big Sick?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: the winner of this award should be Michelle Pfeiffer for Mother! Unfortunately, she wasn't nominated. Mary J. Blige was nominated for Mudbound. She was fine, but she didn't really make an impression on me. Octavia Spencer played the same character as she did in Hidden Figures. Leslie Manville was okay in Phantom Thread.
The award will likely go to either Allison Janney for playing Tonya Harding's profane and abusive mother in I, Tonya or to Laurie Metcalf for playing the put-upon mom in Lady Bird. I think Janney gets the win.
THE REST: I would give the original screenplay award to Dunkirk. I'm also happy if Get Out or The Big Sick win. I think the award goes to Get Out. Adapted screenplay should go to The Disaster Artist. I think it will go to Call Me By Your Name..
I would give the cinematography award to Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049. If he doesn't win, I hope it goes to Hoyte van Hoytema for Dunkirk. I would also like to see Hans Zimmer get the original score Oscar for Dunkirk.
Those are my thoughts. I'm usually wrong. But at least I saw all of the nominees.
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